| Title |
Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa
|
|---|---|
| Published in |
PLOS ONE, September 2011
|
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0024528 |
| Pubmed ID | |
| Authors |
Juliana Jaramillo, Eric Muchugu, Fernando E. Vega, Aaron Davis, Christian Borgemeister, Adenirin Chabi-Olaye |
| Abstract |
The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1. |
X Demographics
The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 40 X users who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 6 | 15% |
| Finland | 3 | 8% |
| Germany | 3 | 8% |
| Japan | 2 | 5% |
| United Kingdom | 2 | 5% |
| Colombia | 2 | 5% |
| Mexico | 2 | 5% |
| Ecuador | 1 | 3% |
| Switzerland | 1 | 3% |
| Other | 5 | 13% |
| Unknown | 13 | 33% |
Demographic breakdown
| Type | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Members of the public | 34 | 85% |
| Scientists | 3 | 8% |
| Science communicators (journalists, bloggers, editors) | 2 | 5% |
| Unknown | 1 | 3% |
Mendeley readers
The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 524 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.
Geographical breakdown
| Country | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 7 | 1% |
| Brazil | 3 | <1% |
| Uganda | 1 | <1% |
| Italy | 1 | <1% |
| Portugal | 1 | <1% |
| Colombia | 1 | <1% |
| Australia | 1 | <1% |
| Costa Rica | 1 | <1% |
| Burundi | 1 | <1% |
| Other | 4 | <1% |
| Unknown | 503 | 96% |
Demographic breakdown
| Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Student > Master | 96 | 18% |
| Researcher | 79 | 15% |
| Student > Ph. D. Student | 64 | 12% |
| Student > Bachelor | 50 | 10% |
| Student > Doctoral Student | 27 | 5% |
| Other | 87 | 17% |
| Unknown | 121 | 23% |
| Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 173 | 33% |
| Environmental Science | 85 | 16% |
| Social Sciences | 23 | 4% |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 17 | 3% |
| Economics, Econometrics and Finance | 15 | 3% |
| Other | 66 | 13% |
| Unknown | 145 | 28% |