How can we interpret data from 'stuttering' transmission chains? https://t.co/V4ztOTyTax 4/ https://t.co/3j7GumrONT
@parolin_ricardo @AndersonBrito_ @juliocroda @FSpilki @mellziland @oatila @gersonsalvador Mas logicamente, com aumento da carga viral circulante, haverão casos para essas situações com Rt<1, em escala proporcional à carga viral circulante Aqui um bom a
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
@phealthsean flagging this to read later https://t.co/JyH86dQXDO
Les épidémies de #MPXV sont beaucoup étudiées par les modélisateurs car elles ont, habituellement, un #R0<1. Autrement dit, on s'attend à ce qu'elles régressent vite. Notre collègue @jlloydsmith les a beaucoup analysées : https://t.co/dAqaMsuqOB 3/N
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
RT @adamjkucharski: More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V…
More on estimation of R and superspreading for 'stuttering outbreaks' like monkeypox in this nice paper: https://t.co/V4ztOTQu25 https://t.co/lRCCYoOp91
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
Again in epi, different viruses in different social contexts have different k! See this 2013 paper on monkeypox: https://t.co/AeDrvXNIXp So I find it quite interesting that, at the boundary of veracity, true vs. false rumors don't seem to differ on k, only
And for those of you worrying about a monkeypox epidemic in the US: don’t. R ~ 0.30 k ~ 0.36 (with a pretty wide CI but probably k < 1) So it is over-dispersed and generates sputtering chains of infection that die out. https://t.co/xAycoweEjO https:
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
@marsouin4 @DrDomPimenta Read the thread: https://t.co/OSCqwOb5kW
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
RT @AdamJKucharski: "What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much ove…
"What if superspreading events can occur?" you ask... Well, the above method happens to work regardless of how much overdispersion there is: https://t.co/V4ztOTyTax 7/
RT @AdamJKucharski: See this excellent Blumberg and Lloyd-Smith paper for more details: https://t.co/V4ztOTyTax
See this excellent Blumberg and Lloyd-Smith paper for more details: https://t.co/V4ztOTyTax
@pholme Most of my examples are simulations where I introduced a single infected individual into a finite population. The inference stuff is based on work done with Monkeypox observations. These are many very small outbreaks without any real intervention
RT @AdamJKucharski: See also: this classic piece of epidemiological analysis https://t.co/u08t53rGIQ And this great paper on inferring sup…
See also: this classic piece of epidemiological analysis https://t.co/u08t53rGIQ And this great paper on inferring superspreading from outbreak sizes https://t.co/7y9uZcK05W
@maiamajumder @c_althaus @HelenBranswell @kakape Based on cluster data from here http://t.co/kSBrF9SRzG and model: http://t.co/7y9uZcK05W
@maiamajumder @c_althaus @joel_c_miller @alexvespi @kakape @NPRHealth @svscarpino @healthmap something like this: http://t.co/7y9uZcK05W
RT @dylanbgeorge: #PLOSCompBio: Inference of R0 and Transmission Heterogeneity from the Size Distribution of Stuttering Chains http://t.co/ugC4jrNjYu
#PLOSCompBio: Inference of R0 and Transmission Heterogeneity from the Size Distribution of Stuttering Chains http://t.co/ugC4jrNjYu
Inference of R0 and Transmission Heterogeneity from the Size Distribution of Stuttering Chains: by Seth Blumbe... http://t.co/RpUM8zbKoD