Garrett Jenkinson, John Goutsias

The role intrinsic statistical fluctuations play in creating avalanches--patterns of complex bursting activity with scale-free properties--is examined in leaky Markovian networks. Using this broad class of models, we develop a probabilistic approach that employs a potential energy landscape perspective coupled with a macroscopic description based on statistical thermodynamics. We identify six important thermodynamic quantities essential for characterizing system behavior as a function of network size: the internal potential energy, entropy, free potential energy, internal pressure, pressure, and bulk modulus. In agreement with classical phase transitions, these quantities evolve smoothly as a function of the network size until a critical value is reached. At that value, a discontinuity in pressure is observed that leads to a spike in the bulk modulus demarcating loss of thermodynamic robustness. We attribute this novel result to a reallocation of the ground states (global minima) of the system's stationary potential energy landscape caused by a noise-induced deformation of its topographic surface. Further analysis demonstrates that appreciable levels of intrinsic noise can cause avalanching, a complex mode of operation that dominates system dynamics at near-critical or subcritical network sizes. Illustrative examples are provided using an epidemiological model of bacterial infection, where avalanching has not been characterized before, and a previously studied model of computational neuroscience, where avalanching was erroneously attributed to specific neural architectures. The general methods developed here can be used to study the emergence of avalanching (and other complex phenomena) in many biological, physical and man-made interaction networks.