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Adaptive Contact Networks Change Effective Disease Infectiousness and Dynamics

Overview of attention for article published in PLoS Computational Biology, August 2010
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Title
Adaptive Contact Networks Change Effective Disease Infectiousness and Dynamics
Published in
PLoS Computational Biology, August 2010
DOI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000895
Pubmed ID
Authors

Sven Van Segbroeck, Francisco C. Santos, Jorge M. Pacheco

Abstract

Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here--SI, SIS and SIR--the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible).

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Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 7 6%
United States 5 4%
Germany 4 3%
Netherlands 1 <1%
Brazil 1 <1%
Finland 1 <1%
India 1 <1%
Austria 1 <1%
Canada 1 <1%
Other 3 2%
Unknown 96 79%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 36 30%
Researcher 33 27%
Student > Master 10 8%
Professor 8 7%
Student > Bachelor 8 7%
Other 17 14%
Unknown 9 7%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 22 18%
Computer Science 19 16%
Physics and Astronomy 18 15%
Mathematics 12 10%
Medicine and Dentistry 9 7%
Other 23 19%
Unknown 18 15%