The combination of NONSENSICAL CONTACT TRACING AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS is absolutely inflammatory: https://t.co/zicRbCAN1b
@gamachexx3 @CovidEcoles Je ne crois pas qu'il y ait de manière simple de l'évaluer tôt à l'apparition d'un variant présentement. On peut estimer approximativement et faire des prévisions mais ça se confirme avec la contamination/contagion basé sur les dé
@QuantumOverlord @adiphlwn @MattSnider @ADanGrenier @MeetJess @qewperp @TeresabDB62 This is how you support an argument; by sharing actual experimentation/research: https://t.co/fyWhtzhl0B
@mahmudme01 Transmissability ( R0 ) is measured through contact tracing data - not just from case count. That's how they know. https://t.co/H8v5sy56JJ
Theory versus Data: How to Calculate R0? https://t.co/Evz99aUh7i
RT @cuttingejs: @npweir @DFisman This appears to answer your question. https://t.co/7uFeJ1fjXK
RT @alt_fda: First off, what is Ro and how is it calculated? Here’s a paper on it. https://t.co/agx7BI203N
First off, what is Ro and how is it calculated? Here’s a paper on it. https://t.co/agx7BI203N
@mrMatty01 @chaser Wrong. Epidemiologists investigate infectious disease spread by running statistical modelling analyses on data. Determining R0 is complicated, and not "pulled out of their arses". Fact checking is your friend. https://t.co/juS3lhC5pS
@npweir @DFisman This appears to answer your question. https://t.co/7uFeJ1fjXK
@gator_gum @robfoot Given the extreme perodicity in his Rt trace, it appears Imgrund is the using the case_reported_date field from the Ontario datasets. Methodology beyond that not clear. Is reported_date the correct / sufficient field? Am I missing somet
@fabiohasler_ @phwampfler @m_matuschek @vz_eich @UZH_Science 2/ ... die Berechnung auf kumulativen Populationsdaten beruht, hängt's von den Modellannahmen ab, die Du triffst, um die Differentialgleichungen zu lösen. /end https://t.co/lU6DbjZiFB
For the avoidance of doubt. Even if the other quantities are constant regardless of NPI, $\overline{c}$ is not. https://t.co/N3G7VMqWUt https://t.co/Okt2X9wnri https://t.co/6Ot6BCd7lk https://t.co/arRn3NzHui
@Howl_it @CBCEdmonton “Epidemiologists calculate R0 using individual-level contact tracing data...” https://t.co/hAkOsnVnUW
@demoblok @smucler To by mě také zajímalo. Buď se to dá udělat přímo z trasování a nebo postavit model na výsledcích testování. ÚZIS metodologii zatím nezveřejnil. https://t.co/HnC2GFbWzQ
@Jon_statistics @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @uksciencechief You can’t calculate R0 without reliably knowing who infected who i.e contact tracing - for now it’s probably just a guesstimate by SAGE. https://t.co/QdQFzty9GX
@FLAHAULT @Fraslin Par ailleurs, les comparaisons de R0 calculés sur base de populations, sont à prendre avec beaucoup de réserve (biais de sélection, méthodo différentes, etc.). Vous auriez probablement pu être co-auteur de cet article 😉 2/2 https://t.co
RT @etxberria55: https://t.co/HVtryTk5Ye for those thinking R0 is a mythical number @latimeralder #GreatBarringtonDeclaration #Covid19UK…
@GDeogadkar This paper will help in understanding. https://t.co/UHyUg1AZvB
@Robert49342107 @ClarkeMicah You know about Google, right? https://t.co/6StmBiOuoF
@latimeralder R0 is a measure of infectivity and is calculated from a model of infection transmission The model was invented by Roy Anderson who works with Neil Ferguson at Imperial College The same model predicted 500 000 deaths in UK and spooked Bor
@leninology The R rate is an average that requires some knowledge of statistics and regional transmission. Calculating it requires some sophisticated modeling skills. It is not epidemiology 101. Simple stuff here https://t.co/fvlDdaWVfv Technical stuff
an R-naught of less than one doesn't necessarily mean #covid19, for many reasons. California had a 0.83 R-naught in April and a 1.12 in June. CA at 0.97 as of yesterday. https://t.co/ztfB5HEFmz
RT @karapandza: @najprodavacica Najčešći metod je rešavanje sistema diferencijalnih jednačina nekog epidemiološkog modela. Ovde ima lepo op…
@najprodavacica Najčešći metod je rešavanje sistema diferencijalnih jednačina nekog epidemiološkog modela. Ovde ima lepo opisano više različitih metoda. https://t.co/nmq1mW0Xo5
I don’t think I can explain it to an expert! Here is a link, but I think the answer is, it’s complicated. https://t.co/zLAKoUjHvH. An epidemiologist or other expert following me may be able to provide u a better explanation. I don’t ever calculate it, I ju
@DemetrioFerrar4 Wey aprende a distinguir R de un porcentaje nominal, para que no te vuelvas a ver como un bruto al creer que un concepto que nunca habías escuchado es lo primero que te viene a la mente. https://t.co/TklQDaqCUc
@_q8girl_ توجد طرق متعددة لحساب R كما هو مشروح في https://t.co/dGK5MKfmEu الطريقة التي اعتمدها هي ILM ولم تفصح الوزارة عن الطريقة التي تعتمدها. كما ان الرقم الذي اضعه هو القيمة اليومية وهي التي ذكرت الوزارة انها اليوم بين ٠.٧٤ و ١.٢٦ كما في الصورة. الذي اع
@HosamKhaleel انصحك بالرجوع الى المواقع الاتية لمعرفة كيفية حساب هذا المعامل: https://t.co/dGK5MKfmEu https://t.co/NAEzgj0wDb
@iiwardward انصحك بالرجوع الى المواقع الاتية لمعرفة كيفية حساب هذا المعامل: https://t.co/dGK5MKfmEu https://t.co/NAEzgj0wDb
"We have shown that the value of R0 may not be an accurate measure of the severity of an outbreak since R0 may fail to represent an epidemic threshold parameter. Thus, measuring R0 through contact tracing... @MLevitt_NP2013 @EthicalSkeptic @AlexBerenson h
Theory Versus Data: How to Calculate R0? https://t.co/hmsFhH1rEC
@sblue8992 انصحك بالرجوع الى المواقع الاتية لمعرفة كيفية حساب هذا المعامل: https://t.co/dGK5MKfmEu https://t.co/NAEzgj0wDb
RT @parolin_ricardo: @Kakofigueiredo2 Na teoria é simples, calculado a partir dda progressão de casos por dia, mas na prática é bastante co…
@Kakofigueiredo2 Na teoria é simples, calculado a partir dda progressão de casos por dia, mas na prática é bastante complicado pois os dados são enviesados. https://t.co/CFZCkEiTmt
RT @sabhlok: This journal article shows that "obtaining R0 from empirical contact tracing data collected by epidemiologists and using this…
This journal article shows that "obtaining R0 from empirical contact tracing data collected by epidemiologists and using this R0 as a threshold parameter for a population-level model could produce extremely misleading estimates". A LOT OF GIGO going on!
RT @FrancescoLari: For those wondering, the R0 index is the result of a model, sort of finger in the air. Remember Imperial College model p…
For those wondering, the R0 index is the result of a model, sort of finger in the air. Remember Imperial College model predicting millions of deaths in Sweden? https://t.co/IR5gNuGzkP
Theory versus Data: How to Calculate R0? https://t.co/jOR5Je1DzP
@aivelo Yksinkertainen se on, mutta on myös kyseenalaistettu, että onko kovin luotettava. Mutta miten niin tautitapausten, sairaalahoidossa olevien ja kuolleiden määrät eivät kerro epidemian etenemisestä? https://t.co/AIYcixzgo7
RT @gorbalsgoebbels: @bettym56 @Maureen6Johnson This too. https://t.co/FRxCotzKEJ
@bettym56 @Maureen6Johnson This too. https://t.co/FRxCotzKEJ
@OldMackIsBack @andrewpclark @Peston I have a degree in Physics and understand statistics, but I am not an epidemiologist. What I have read is that in the absence of testing and tracing, the calculation of R0 is a "best estimate". https://t.co/p6BQVlYq87
@MikRaczynski @rafalhirsch Sam się zastanawiałem jak wiarygodnie można podejść do tematu R0 mając dostęp tylko danych publikowanych przez MZ. Np w tej metodzie: https://t.co/NK9t4zyuht do modelu potrzeba o wiele wiecej danych.
@argus791 @SmartBusSol The formulae is in this journal article. https://t.co/g1vAu3MpK0
@daddofriel There are 2 approaches to calculating R0: (i) by contact tracing and testing, and (ii) by inference from the incidence of the disease in the population. In order to use method (i), a testing and contact tracing regime needs to be in place. http
@LucioMM1 @followonly83 @alecolace @yinonw @JordanSchachtel @AlexBerenson @aginnt @drjasonfung @brithume @tlowdon @justin_hart @AJKayWriter See https://t.co/HjfvVqu386 and one up. https://t.co/ibQQQEstTL is worth a read, although from 2007 it still has hi
@MikeWTweets Nope, don't think I can do that. Really needs contact tracing data which I don't have - again DHSC should be able to estimate https://t.co/2DxJBY0EkS
Disclaimer: (b) I have used the individual contract tracing method versus the popular population level method Both have advantages & drawbacks; methodology here: https://t.co/f7zd93YyJC Might be of interest to: @unassertive, @Anand_datta, @sehaj23 &am
@ghoshal This paper from 2007 predicted EXACTLY what is happening with coronavirus mania. People applied infection rate (R0) from a small group and applied it to a large population which led to wildly misleading estimates and consequently unnecessary inter
@joshelman @rabois @mr_james_c @mattocko @balajis I'm downplaying concerns because they've been GREATLY exaggerated by incorrectly calculating the R0 (infection rate). They've tanked the economy which creates massive harm. This 2007 paper predicted exactly
An inflated coronavirus R0 (infection rate) has led to "extremely misleading estimates of the infectiousness of the pathogen, the severity of an outbreak, and the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control." Prescient. h
@newmediarules @jerry_jtaylor @reason How people miscalculate the infection rate from a small population to a large one leading to inflated estimates and unnecessary interactions. Those interactions are smashing the economy and people's lives. https://t.c
and the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control." Research available at: https://t.co/RzSOsL1mFt
@fesalchain @macordero @Orrego Te sugiero leer este paper https://t.co/6Y1Ols63zg Y este hilo https://t.co/l4eXuUf8Ex
How to Calculate R0? Any math wizzes out there want to calculate the estimated number of current #COVID19 cases in the US today starting with Trump’s Feb 26 number of 15? https://t.co/qQJ37nYB4M
@QuisitiveInvest An R0 on a cruise ship of 46 people, 21 infected is 2.0 if 7 infected persons originally boarded. Imagine the odds of that. R0 of 2.0 on cruise ship doesn't make sense https://t.co/j9gl9GZlxy https://t.co/mOPNLf2evH
@NedalAlomari1 @ChristoPhraser @AdamJKucharski And here is an article on the R0 nonsense... https://t.co/kuessySars
@RosenelliEM @PulmCrit @iBookCC You will have to read every specific article for what they used, but here is an article discussing that exact problem. https://t.co/uVulPnxPTm
RT @DarinCBrown: @4Awesometweet @GaryKaltbaum @DiMartinoBooth @OpenOutcrier "The basic reproduction number (R0) specifies the average numbe…
@4Awesometweet @GaryKaltbaum @DiMartinoBooth @OpenOutcrier "The basic reproduction number (R0) specifies the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual... conventionally it is assumed that if R0>1 the outbreak generates an
@LizWill99 @Lady_Star_Gem When calculated from mathematical models, particularly ordinary differential equations, what is often claimed to be R0 is, in fact, simply a threshold, not the average number of secondary infections. Theory vs Data - Published 200
@LauraLeeLenhoff @Lady_Star_Gem Theory vs Data - Published 2007. Still relevant. https://t.co/BkaGsQDGh8 When calculated from mathematical models, particularly ordinary differential equations, what is often claimed to be R0 is, in fact, simply a threshol
@FoxandtheFlu I usually point folks to this paper: https://t.co/7DlZMC9du3 Does that help?
PLOS ONE: Theory versus Data: How to Calculate R0? http://t.co/X1yB9GytH6
@freezingkiwi @LewStoddart Nah, just played around with factors influencing R0 at stages of a religious epidemic. http://t.co/uQ1EM4tT